The global terror threat in 2008 and beyond

The global “war against terror and terrorism” has seen mixed results in the last twelve months.

Numerous plots have been stopped, leaders arrested and networks disrupted, so we are being told. Whether this is so or not only those that tell us this will know.

Al-Qaeda's violent world view, however, still has many followers and plenty of recruits seem to be available, it would appear, for new attacks.

So, what should we expect in the coming years?

More of the same, I would say, for we are certainly not, in the same way as the USA never managed to do that, winning the hearts and minds of the people concerned; not even those in Iraq. While many Iraqis may, indeed, be happy that they got rid of Sadam Hussein they certainly are not happy with the western military presence in their country. And who can blame them; would we like occupiers in our streets?

Some analysts like to pretend that currently in this seventh year following the attacks of 9/11, al-Qaeda's fortunes are mixed and that Iraq was its biggest setback where relatively small number of hardcore jihadist insurgents had hoped to create an Islamist mini-state in the centre and west of the country.

Partly due, they say, to US General Petraeus's surge in troop numbers, partly due to the controversial US funding of local citizen militias, and partly due to Iraq's Sunni tribes deciding they were fed up with al-Qaeda's extreme violence coupled with its austere brand of Islam, al-Qaeda in Iraq is, for now, on the defensive. But is this truly so? We are seeing, once again, the violence escalating in the last month or so and the ordinary Iraqi calling for security. A security that the western troops, including the US troop surges, has not managed to bring. Most Iraqis today will say that the situation, as far as security is concerned, is as bad as it ever was.

Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and in fact elsewhere, remains capable, as we have seen, of inflicting high-profile attacks and is unlikely to abandon its cause in a hurry.

But while Iraq has certainly been the front line in the physical conflict between the West and its allies on the one hand, and global jihadism on the other, it is only one of many arenas in which al-Qaeda's affiliates are active.

New targets abound

If, as some have been predicting, though the signs recently are against this, the violence in Iraq continues to subside, then retreating non-Iraqi fighters are likely to seek new targets in neighbouring countries, especially Jordan and the Arab Gulf states.

Many analysts are rather surprised that liberal Dubai, with its high concentration of Western tourists, shoppers and expatriates, has so far escaped attack.

In Pakistan, al-Qaeda's core leadership has spent the last year consolidating its presence in the thinly governed tribal territories next to the Afghan border, cementing its ties to the Taleban and setting up new training camps to teach bomb-making, kidnap and assassination. Despite the fact that they may have lost one or two of their leadership in attacks recently, if indeed this is not just a ruse by the Pakistani authorities who often seem rather reluctant to act against the those islamist terror cells and battle groups, Al-Qaeda in Pakistan is hardly going to give up the fight either. We do know how the Madrassas in that country, and especially in those tribal areas, are a training ground for jihadist fighters from all over the globe.

Both al-Qaeda and the wider Islamist movement there have benefited from Pakistan's unstable political climate, and any new attempts to exert military control over the tribal areas will most likely be met with fierce resistance.

In Somalia, the defeat of the Islamist militias a year ago has not brought stability, and there are signs al-Qaeda may be tempted to boost its presence in the Horn of Africa.

Here there have been a number of alleged plots disrupted in 2007 - in Germany, Denmark and Belgium – and the stress must be with the word “alleged”, as I already said in the beginning.

Those accused may be behind bars, if they ever were real, but European governments and their citizens are firmly in al-Qaeda's sights for their perceived role in Afghanistan and the wider Middle East.

I know, and so do many of the readers, I am sure, that I am a cynic and also someone who does not trust any government, whether ours or those of other countries, as to whether this “war on terror” is actually real or not just something that has been made up in order to be able to exert more and more control over there citizens of the various countries, namely us.

Media war

On the media front, both al-Qaeda and the Taleban have been prolific in broadcasting their messages over the internet, and are likely to continue this part of their campaign against the West and its allies.

Two of the FBI's most wanted fugitives - Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri - have delivered over a dozen audio and video messages in the past 12 months.

The latter, who is effectively al-Qaeda's chief strategist, has taken to appearing against a cosy-looking backdrop of a library of Islamic texts, implying that wherever he is currently in hiding, he is secure and comfortable.

Al-Qaeda's media arm, known as al-Sahab, has increased its annual output of audio and video messages from just 6 in 2002 to a record 94 in 2007, according to the US-based research institute, the IntelCenter.

In the coming months, this media campaign will likely intensify as al-Qaeda tries to reverse its setbacks in Iraq, and the Taleban maintain their campaign to regain territory in Afghanistan.

When it comes to the media war then we must also remember that it is being fought on both sides. Therefore, we must take everything with a pinch of salt and lots of discernment. Either sides would like to pull the wool over our eyes. The “enemy” to convince us that he is stronger than the measures that we can put in place and our own governments that the “enemy” is that strong and stronger so that they can put in place more control methods which, in the end, are there to monitor us, the ordinary citizens of the individual nations rather than the “enemy”.

That said we must be ever vigilant just in case that there are real terrorists out there too.

The greatest threat to our infrastructure, however, is not the possibility of terrorist attacks, whether ordinary or chemical, biological or even nuclear, as in the form of a dirty bomb. The greatest threat is from the environmental changes today.

We have abandoned, it would seem, now the term “global warming”, simple, methinks, because it might also have a different effect in some places, in favor of the word “climate change”. Still, however, the authorities try to tell us that it is all man-made and that, if be but stop using the motorcar, aeroplanes, and stop cows and other livestock belching too much, we can reverse this. But what if, as it would appear to me, this “climate change”, and this term is the best one for it, is a repetition of the changes in climate that the Earth, our blue planet, seems to be going through every thousand or so years. Then there is not much we can do to stop it. We then will have to learn to live with it, and the sooner we started to put measures in place to do just that the better.

© Michael Smith (Veshengro), March 2008